Q1 2025: Navigating Risk, Data, and Growth in Japan

A founder in contemplation, reflecting on strategy and vision amidst a vast, natural landscape, symbolizing personal and professional growth.

A First Quarter Reflection on Risk, Data, and Growth

The first quarter of 2025 provided a critical opportunity to reassess strategy and vision. For those engaged in Executive Leadership Japan, navigating the complexities of the market requires more than just data; it demands a trusted Lived Experience Forum. This period highlighted a renewed focus on intentional risk, the indispensable value of authentic information, and the power of a connected community through the Delphi Network. These reflections, drawn from personal and professional observations, set the stage for a year of calculated growth and deeper engagement.

Embracing a CEO Mindset

Redefining Roles for Strategic Growth

A profound realization this quarter was the distinction between a COO and a CEO mindset. Much time is often spent stabilizing operations—refining routines, improving admin, and ensuring established elements run smoothly. This is the crucial work of a COO. However, true growth demands a CEO’s perspective. This means actively seeking new stimulus through people and travel, maintaining a long-term vision, and, most importantly, taking calculated risks. This resolution emerged from a period of personal reflection during holidays in Hong Kong, London, Dublin, and Paris, which broke the stiffness of routine and allowed for new ways of thinking.

The challenge is to move beyond the comfort of a well-oiled machine and pioneer new directions. This sentiment was powerfully echoed in a conversation with a Delphi member. He emphasized that to inspire a risk-averse team, a leader must set the example. Without taking risks, a business relies only on what has already worked, severely limiting its potential for stronger growth. This is a direct challenge to the instinct of many small business owners who prioritize large cash reserves as a safety net.

Shifting from Savings to Investment

Digital display showing financial market data, charts, and figures, illustrating economic trends, risk assessment, and investment decisions.

This cautious approach, while understandable, can stifle progress. Having experienced sharp fluctuations like the Delphi boom during Covid and the subsequent bust, the desire for a cash hedge is strong. However, if money simply accumulates in a bank account, it represents untapped potential. That capital could be invested in new software, new staff, or new services.

An insightful comment in the Financial Times noted how much faster the US economy grows compared to the EU or Japan. American businesses often treat money as an energy source to fuel expansion, experimentation, and speed. They don't value cash for its own sake but as a means to an end. In contrast, many Japanese and European companies hedge against the future by hoarding cash. This cultural difference is often visible in business development. Americans frequently seem more ready to experiment with a membership, whereas European and Japanese counterparts are more cautious, though often more deeply engaged once committed. Consequently, a key goal for 2025 is to replace a "focus on savings" with a proactive strategy of investing. The ultimate hedge against a future crisis is not cash itself, but a bigger, better-resourced, and more powerful business.

The Indispensable Value of Lived Experience

Confronting a Flawed Information Culture

Recent reporting from the Financial Times highlighted the UK's staggering struggle with inadequate government data, despite billions invested in IT. This failure to establish a cohesive "information culture" prevents effective decision-making. This problem is not unique to the UK. Many companies focus on fostering a "growth culture" or a "risk culture" but neglect the foundational need for a culture built on reliable information.

Bad information is like a virus; it can appear benign but have catastrophic consequences. Today, nearly every source of information has an agenda. Think tanks are ideological, media companies chase engagement, and investment banks spin narratives. Even foundational statistics like GDP are often based on surprisingly poor information-gathering processes. This is compounded by software that beautifully visualizes even the most flawed data, creating persuasive dashboards that discourage the necessary skepticism. For effective Executive Leadership Japan, cutting through this noise is paramount.

The Delphi Model as a Solution

This is where the value of a Lived Experience Forum becomes clear. At Delphi, we prioritize the candid exchange of lived experience. We bring together country managers who share a belief in mutual support. They impart the lessons from their own journeys—often dearly bought—so their peers can navigate challenges more effectively. This model provides clean fuel for decision-making. Unlike privatized data or biased reports, this shared knowledge is not a commodity to be sold. It is an honest attempt to measure reality, shared within a trusted community. We thank our members for making this unique forum possible through their candor and commitment.

Strengthening the Community

Welcoming New Voices and Perspectives

The Delphi Network continued its expansion in Q1, welcoming accomplished leaders in cosmetics and finance. They join a vibrant community that grew significantly in 2024, adding CEOs and VPs from a wide range of industries. This diversity of experience is the lifeblood of our community.

Our monthly cocktails at the Andaz Hotel continue to provide a dynamic atmosphere for connection. The January event, featuring a visiting delegation of founders and VCs from South Africa, offered a unique start-up vibe. These gatherings give country managers an invaluable sense of emerging trends and potential industry disruptors. We have also found that since implementing a "Lite" membership for these events, the energy and commitment from attendees have soared. When people invest, they become more invested in a successful outcome, proving a fundamental business lesson.

Navigating Global and Local Dynamics

Insights from the UK to Japan

Observations from the UK this winter painted a grim picture of rising prices, poor GDP forecasts, and political uncertainty under a new government. There is also a palpable anxiety regarding the new Trump administration's perceived lack of a special friendship toward Britain.

Despite these challenges, new opportunities are emerging. Delphi will be involved in the Institute of Directors' efforts to market British services at the upcoming Osaka Expo. This initiative aims to showcase a more diverse range of UK companies beyond the traditional focus on London's financial hub. We were pleased to introduce members to the IoD to support this effort, with plans underway for a cocktail event in July. This connection underscores our role in bridging international business communities and creating tangible opportunities for members.

Reflections on Values and Success

Defining Wealth Beyond the Balance Sheet

The quarter also prompted reflections on personal values and the true meaning of success. Encounters with old friends offered starkly different perspectives. One, a brilliant linguist, moves from country to country to avoid taxes, a life disconnected from the human instinct for a home. In contrast, another friend, one of the owners of a mid-sized IT firm, recently celebrated his company's listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. He proudly chose to pay his significant tax bill to the Japanese government rather than decamp to Singapore, demonstrating a powerful commitment to his community.

These stories reinforce the idea that true wealth is not just a financial calculation. It is also about values, contribution, and a sense of belonging. As leaders, the principles we live by are as important as the profits we generate.